MANPATTERN project kicks off to enhance the safety of satellite operations

GMV is leading the newly launched Manoeuvre Pattern Inference for Safe Operations (MANPATTERN) project, an initiative of the European Space Agency (ESA) conducted in consortium partnership with the University of Strathclyde (UoS). The project will develop and validate flight dynamics methods that reduce missed risks and false alarms when satellites maneuver without sharing their plans.

The rapid growth in maneuverable satellites is making it increasingly difficult to maintain accurate space object catalogs and screen for close approaches. When a satellite performs maneuvers unknown to other operators, conjunction analysis based on maneuver-free propagation can generate false positives or miss high-risk events altogether.

MANPATTERN addresses this operational gap by targeting three interconnected functions: maneuver pattern inference and prediction; state and maneuver estimation with data association; and maneuver-informed conjunction risk assessment. These methods will be tested using multiple sources of orbital data, including operator and ESA ephemerides and maneuver history files, as well as publicly available catalog products such as two-line elements (TLEs) and ephemerides from Space-Track’s Special Perturbations Catalogue (SPCAT).

As a key technical development, the prototype software will be built on GODOT, ESA’s astrodynamics library for space mission analysis and operations. It will also extend the Robust Orbit Determination and Data Association (RODDAS) library, developed under a previous ESA contract executed by GMV. RODDAS, which itself is based on GODOT, is used for orbit determination and data association in Space Situational Awareness (SSA) applications. The implementation will be delivered as a reusable software library and a command-line utility.

The project will also develop a maneuver-informed collision risk assessment capability that translates predicted maneuver timing and magnitude, together with their associated uncertainties, into orbital uncertainty and collision probability metrics. This will enable conjunction screening to account for unknown maneuvers, thereby reducing missed risks and false alarms. It will also support detailed studies of how maneuver pattern uncertainty affects collision probability, including comparisons using Conjunction Data Messages (CDM) from ESA missions, where available.

Performance assessment will draw on selected real observation data and representative simulated scenarios, evaluating robustness across different orbital regimes and propulsion types, including impulsive and low-thrust maneuvers. The validation campaign will compare inferred patterns with historical records and quantify the operational impact of incorporating maneuver pattern data into conjunction risk assessment.

As prime contractor, GMV is spearheading the project. Its responsibilities include project management, software engineering, data preparation, integration, and performance assessment. UoS will lead the initial literature review, method analysis, and pre-prototyping and benchmarking, and will support the transition of selected approaches into the prototype.