For all mankind: fact or fiction?

Have you seen the latest season of For All Mankind yet? If you haven't, SPOILER ALERT! But if you have, you may have wondered whether certain key parts of the plot are really possible or not. In the seventh episode of the fourth season, they discover the existence of a large asteroid containing large amounts of iridium. As this material is extremely scare on Earth, it is valuable to whichever country acquires it first. But, would it be possible to change the course of an asteroid like that in real life?

First, let's understand why iridium is so valuable. It turns out that iridium is a surprisingly rare metal on Earth, but it is not so rare in space. However, there is one place on our planet where we can find abnormal amounts of iridium: a layer formed about 69 million years ago 😊. Iridium has technological applications ranging from producing fountain pens to cancer treatment with brachytherapy. However, it is particularly valuable in the show because of its scarcity, in addition to the USSR having a monopoly on its production, which leads to major conflicts.

To end this monopoly, the lead characters devise a plan to put the asteroid into Earth's orbit (or Mars's orbit 😊). 

In reality, asteroid deflection is a subject studied by scientists and engineers. Even though we have fortunately not been faced with an emergency situation that requires deflecting an asteroid (2024 YR4, we are watching you), some theoretical—or not so theoretical—strategies have been proposed:

• Nuclear: this consists of detonating a nuclear charge near the asteroid to alter its orbit. However, this raises ethical and technical concerns (which you will be familiar with if you have seen the movie Armageddon).
• Kinetic thrust: i.e., sending a spacecraft to impact the asteroid and alter its trajectory. NASA's DART probe, which hit the small moon Dimorphos in 2022, is a real example of this technique, and GMV has a very important role to play here. In 2024, we launched Hera to study DART'S impact. And in 2028, we will launch RAMSES to study the flyby of the asteroid Apophis, which will approach Earth in 2029. Will we visit 2024 YR4 in 2032? I'm sure we will.
• Gravity tractor: this involves placing a probe near the asteroid and using its gravity to alter its course. Although this is a more subtle and elegant option, it requires a great deal of time and precision. This makes it completely incompatible with emergencies.
• Conventional propulsion: this is the method used in For All Mankind, where a propulsion system is attached to the asteroid itself and is tasked with changing its trajectory.
• And many more methods ranging from painting asteroids to frying them with a laser beam from Earth.

In For All Mankind, thrusters mounted on the surface of the asteroid are used to alter its trajectory. Even in a scenario with accelerated technological progress, would this option be viable? To that end, why not ask Tsiolkovsky?

Let's focus on what we can extrapolate from the images. In the show, we see several conventional thrusters that are mounted on a structure anchored to the asteroid. This propellant is sent into space after a combustion reaction where it is accelerated. For conventional propellants, we are able to accelerate the exhaust gases to speeds of a few thousand meters per second. 

We also need to know approximately the change in velocity. The typical velocity of objects around the orbit of Mars is measured in tens of kilometers per second. In the show, we see the asteroid begin to orbit Mars after a several-hour maneuver. If we assume that the asteroid flies over Mars and begins to orbit the planet, we can estimate that its change in velocity has to be of the same order as its velocity around the Sun.

Then we would need a mass less than the mass of the asteroid itself, and we could even use the resources on its surface to propel it. 

In short, while deflecting an asteroid with conventional thrusters as in For All Mankind is fascinating, current technology makes it unfeasible. However, with advances in propulsion, we could approach this possibility in the future. Space exploration and planetary defense are constantly evolving fields, and each mission brings us closer to handling the challenges of space.

Until then we will keep on dreaming and working in GMV to make space a more accessible and safer place for all mankind.

Author: Víctor Manuel Moreno