GMV Explores New Decision-Making Approaches for Satellite Collision Avoidance

GMV is supporting a new European Space Agency (ESA) activity focused on enhancing decision-making processes for satellite collision avoidance. The initiative, titled “S2-CR-03 – Decision Criteria Beyond Collision Probability”, aims to move beyond conventional practices based solely on collision probability.

The activity explores how the potential consequences of a collision, particularly the increased risk posed to nearby satellites, can be incorporated into the criteria used to decide whether or not to perform a collision avoidance manoeuvre. This broader perspective reflects the growing importance of environmental responsibility in orbit.

The project is led by Guardtime as prime contractor, with GMV and Politecnico di Milano acting as subcontractors. As part of this collaborative effort, the consortium will develop a Fragmentation Consequences Tool. This tool will evaluate the impact of potential collisions by assessing the additional risk they may impose on the existing satellite population, helping operators make more informed decisions in high-risk conjunction scenarios.

With the increasing congestion of Earth orbit, there is a clear need for more sophisticated, risk-aware approaches to managing satellite operations. This ESA activity supports that evolution by introducing new layers of analysis into collision avoidance planning.

GMV’s participation reinforces its strong commitment to improving space safety and contributing to the development of future space traffic management frameworks for a more secure and sustainable orbital environment.